Official release of the Independent Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Ukraine Economic Outlook: The following calculation was made on the basis of a recalculation of energy import volumes in 2019, taking into account the seasonal factor (monthly) for coal, oil and gas prices for futures quotes until the end of 2020.
“These data are an important component of our general econometric model, on the basis of which we make the most accurate forecasts of the“ “corridor of possible deviations” of the hryvnia exchange rate for each month. In addition to the trade and balance of payments data, it takes into account the forecast of the “fiscal gap” (deficit) of the budget and the possible expansion of the “monetary base” for each month,” UEO’s Chief Economist Mykhailo Kukhar said.
Ukraine Economic Outlook is a research organization independent of the government, which monthly updates its clients on the macroeconomic forecast of the rate, GDP, inflation, budget and balance of payments in Ukraine. Twice a year, forecasts are published publicly. Publication of the public forecast for 2020 is June 10.
In 2019, Ukraine Economic Outlook provided the most accurate price forecast six months before the opening of Ukraine’s electricity exchange market (July 1, 2019).
Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the group has presented anti-crisis commentary and forecasts have been published on the group’s website. The presentations include weekly operational calculations of Kukhar and his colleagues.