UEO Macroeconomic Forecast for 2020 (19/05/2020)

On May 19, UEO published its forecast of Ukraine’s main macroeconomic indicators in 2020.

The COVID-19 anti-crisis review by Mykhailo Kukhar is available on YouTube here:

According to our calculations, nominal GDP in 2020 will decrease by UAH 92 billion to UAH 839 billion, a sharp reduction compared to 2019 (UAH 933 billion), in Q2 2020, due to the COVID-19 quarantine. We expect nominal growth to recover to last year’s levels in Q3 and Q4, reaching 1,131 billion in Q4, possibly exceeding Q4 2019 nominal GDP of UAH 1,115 billion.

In 2020, inflation will remain within the 5% NBU inflation targeting – 5.3%.

Real GDP this year will decline by 7%, with peak drawdown in Q4 (-14%) and a slow recovery to 5% of last year’s production.

In 2020 there will be gradual devaluation to the level of January 2019 in Q3, with a bump in Q4 to UAH 28.5 UAH/USD. The weighted average rate according to our calculations will be UAH 27.3 UAH/USD.

Dollar GDP will also decline to $142 billion (-11 billion dollars).

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